Leading into the future - better

As I transitioned back to NZ from Mexico this Christmas, after a little over two years away “on the road”, I knew it was going to be tough settling back in. I was most likely going to be rushing around, finding a place to live, reconnecting with people, and telling the same story over and over again about my adventures building a fully remote business in Latin America. 

There were a number of possible scenarios that might play out concerning where I lived, what I did for work, but I definitely had an imagined vision of how I wanted things to be (let’s not get into managing romanticized expectations in this post!). As I packed my bags (one and a half of them), I pre-planned the things I would do when I hit the ground to ensure I landed as close to my ideal outcome as possible and avoided the possible train-wreck and tumbleweed which could have happened.

So as I sit in the sun, in Freemans Bay, with a dog at my feet, and a busy calendar, I reflected on how things had gone and how I navigated the transition (well, thanks for asking). 

It turns out I had semi-unwittingly employed a framework called Informed Methodical Speculation (IMS), as described by Professor Simon McIntyre of the UNSW. I’m currently undertaking the UNSW Designing the Future of Work Certificate on Coursera and it’s fascinating that this came up for me.

IMS is one of the many futurist frameworks which can be used to more effectively engage with the future and at the same time reduce uncertainty. A big change, whether it be personal or professional, change can be disrupting if things don’t turn out how you want. 

There are a lot of possible outcomes in front of you. Of these possible outcomes, a smaller number are probable, and these may or may not line up with your preferable outcomes. The work is to identify what needs to be done and in what way to increase the alignment between the probable and your preferable outcomes. This leads to a more satisfactory result. 

As I started jotting on post-its about where else I could apply this framework in my leadership consulting, and realized pretty much anywhere where time and an outcome were involved. I created these questions in order to help you apply the tool:

1. What is the situation
2. What are some possible outcomes of this?
3. What are the most probable outcomes?
4. What is my preferred outcome?
5. What do I need to do and in what way, to ensure the probable outcome is my preferred one?

Some situations leaders may apply this in the workplace (and you will have millions of your own)

• Providing a staff member with a new developmental experience
• Having a tough meeting
• Dealing with discrimination/bullying in the team
• Making time for my own personal development

Please comment below if you have any thoughts.

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